With a sitting Governor who is extremely vulnerable, there's no doubt that the IDP and team Culver will be invoking "Rule 11" from Saul Alinsky's book, Rules for Radicals, published in 1972. In fact, forget the prediction, it's already happening...
Rule 11: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, polarize it. Don’t try to attack abstract corporations or bureaucracies. Identify a responsible individual. Ignore attempts to shift or spread the blame.
Yesterday, IDP Chair Michael Kiernan immediately attacked the statewide radio ad unveiled by GOP gubernatorial candidate Christian Fong. Click this link to listen to the 60 second ad.
Flashback: On July 10th, I published an article right here at "HR" that profiled incoming Culver Chief of Staff John Frew. Although Frew won't start for another month, it's already very clear there is a collaboration between Culver, Frew and Kiernan. Below is an excerpt from my profile: "Culver's New Chief of Staff - John Frew (Get ready to rumble)" or, you can read the entire post here.
For all the valid criticism directed by the Republican party at Governor Culver, you can expect Frew to immediately attack and challenge the messenger. Frew is on record as saying, "I'm not going to allow anybody to get away with political nonsense, and when someone takes a shot at me, I'm not going to take it lying down. I believe in responding to unfair criticism quickly. You don't wait for a poll to tell you what to do."
Expect to see much more triangulating between Culver, Frew and Kiernan in the coming months. As I've already predicted, you're about to witness the unfolding of one of the dirtiest campaigns in Iowa history. This was already evidenced by the Branstad fliers that were targeted to car windshields in the WHO TV parking lot last week. Dave Price (Price of Politics) broke the story here.
IDP Chairman Kiernan said in his press release yesterday:
"Facts are facts," Kiernan said. "We have balanced the budget every year, and at the same time we are making smart and needed investments in the future."
"We were recently named the 8th fastest growing economy in the United States, and we have the 4th best business climate," Kiernan said. "That's not the picture of a state that had to borrow to pay its bills."
"To lump Iowa in with states like California is fundamentally incorrect, misleading and false," Kiernan said. "Fong is being dishonest."
To insinuate that Christian Fong is dishonest is classic Saul Alinsky. But here's the problem:
The most glaring dishonesty in the 2010 campaign is that which has already occurred between the Culver administration and the people of Iowa.
In a recent SurveyUSA Newspoll, only 44% of Iowans surveyed approved of Governor Culver's performance. I predict this will drop to the low 40's or high 30's in the next few months and then all bets are off when the Revenue Estimating Conference releases their December projections, closely followed in January as the General Assembly gavels in for the next legislative session. As I've said many times already, this promises to be ugly and the Democrats know it too! I've already heard rumors of a dramatically shortened session as one tactic to minimize the damage not only in the Governor's race, but the Senate and House races where it appears there is dramatic risk emerging to lose many seats that were once considered "safe."
Generational Debt:
This theme is at the heart of Fong's campaign message. This is why we saw the immediate "overreaction" from the IDP yesterday...Christian Fong has gone directly to the soft spot in the Culver administration, "Generational Debt." Over 70% of Iowans reject this form of borrowing and Culver proceeded with his I-Jobs plan passing it through the legislature in the middle of the night last spring while reporters and voters alike slept.
Here are Fong's own words, excerpted from his Op-Ed published in TheIowaRepublican on July 24th:
"The Governor’s decision to borrow his way through a budget crisis, choosing generational debt over fiscal restraint, is misguided. I would balance the budget, and would veto any bill that spent one cent over the 99% spending limits, or raided reserves to get there."
Fong also published an article here at "HR" back on April 20th about the inevitable results of a failed bonding strategy. Here is his hard hitting conclusion:
"The Ugly: "Falling tax revenue will push states to cut spending or raise taxes." It is that simple. Using any other option (like, say, a $700 million bonding plan) is "delaying the inevitable."
So, the overall economy looks like it will start improving soon, but if legislators think this year is bad, next year is likely to be much worse. A bonding plan is simply extending the pain, and delaying the inevitable. The key take-away is economic reality, not political posturing:
The State of Iowa must either grow by raising taxes and fees, or shrink by cutting spending."
For Kiernan to suggest that Chet Culver and Iowa Democrats have presided over our state's budget with responsible stewardship of our resources is the "whopper" of a deception that will play out over the next several months leading into the 2010 election. This challenge is now magnified by the lack of any future federal stimulus dollars, which saved us from disaster this past fiscal year.
RPI Chairman Matt Strawn was quick to identify this when Culver attempted to give himself credit for balancing the 2009 state budget this summer:
"It is only because of the federal stimulus bailout, not any spending discipline on the Governor's part, that he can claim a balanced budget. All Gov. Culver did was temporarily pay off the state credit card by transferring the balance to the federal credit card."
Iowa Democrats will attempt to justify this federal back-fill by invoking a Moody's economist named Mark Zandi who published work in January which opined federal stimulus funds were advantageous to states needing a "potent tool" to rescue their ailing economies. At face value, this essay might apply in some states, (Michigan immediately comes to mind) but the other shoe will drop over time as Culver's spending will stimulate job growth that falls dramatically short of projections.
The budget buck stops here Governor: You will be held accountable by voters for your results.
Here's where you find "authentic dishonesty"....from our own Governor:
When the non partisan Legislative Services Agency (LSA) reported on the results of Culver's 100 million dollar Iowa Power Fund, they estimated the creation of 100 "green jobs" attributed to this program. Having spent 47 million thus far, this report was a devastating setback for Culver.
When reporters asked Culver for comment in this study, he replied:
"That's an outdated report," Culver said Thursday. "What we know today is about 8,700 jobs have been created in Iowa in the green technology sector, in part because of the Power Fund."
Let me suggest this scenario: In January, as the legislature convenes with nearly $1 Billion in shortfalls to the state budget, let's ask IDP Chair Michael Kiernan to comment on his remarks yesterday about his "facts are facts" statement and see if he has any comment about the fiscal house of cards that will collapse on Iowa Democrats in just a matter of months.
As this nightmare scenario develops, I suggest we all listen carefully to our own "Armchair Economist" who will then preside over a message and a plan that I predict will be in high demand by Iowa voters who have had enough of fiscal irresponsibility and outright dishonesty by Governor Culver.
yu
